Bitcoin made history at the end of June, closing the month at around $107,100—its highest-ever monthly candle—marking a third consecutive green month in what has become one of its strongest second quarters on record. The milestone reflects renewed institutional interest and bullish seasonality, but a classic technical formation called a spinning top candle suggests markets might be entering a phase of hesitation as July begins.
By tallying gains of nearly 30% in Q2, Bitcoin has surged back from its April lows near $75,000 to momentum-defining heights in the six-figure range. The previous record monthly closes—$104,600 in May and $102,450 in January—have now been eclipsed, fueling speculation that institutional investors, especially via spot ETFs and large-scale treasury buys, are reshaping Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Analysts at 10X Research, spearheaded by Markus Thielen, note that Bitcoin’s performance mirrors seasonal equity trends: data shows that in 7 of the last 10 Julys, BTC posted a positive return—averaging around 9%. That historical tendency, combined with recent bullish signals, has elevated optimism for continued growth this month.
Despite momentum, June’s monthly candle also recorded long upper and lower wicks with a modest real body—a pattern known as a spinning top. This formation reveals a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, signaling neither side secured control. In trading lore, such candles often precede periods of consolidation—or even a reversal—particularly when they appear after a sustained rally.
Notably, a similar spinning top showed up in July 2024, followed by a sharp 8.6% decline the next month. That prior precedent has some market watchers advocating caution, emphasizing that technical signals like this should temper aggressive bullish posturing.
Technically, Bitcoin now faces a clear test: resistance around $108,890—the level identified by analyst Rekt Capital as a major weekly barrier. If Bitcoin can reclaim and sustain above that level in July, the path toward renewed rallies remains open. But if it fails and remains trapped beneath, a short-term lower high may form—potentially opening the door to a retracement.
Short-term indicators are mixed. Trading volumes remain moderate, signaling neither confident momentum nor panic. Price action is confined to a tight range near June highs, suggesting consolidation even as longer-term seasonal drivers build .
Seasonal Tailwinds and Institutional Flows
July has historically been favorable for risk assets—and Bitcoin often moves in tandem with equities. The S&P 500 closed June at a fresh record, and BTC has typically followed that pattern over the past decade. That same institutional traction has come from spot ETF inflows and corporate treasury accumulation—factors analysts say now outweigh the traditional halving-driven model.
This institutional backdrop gives credence to bullish forecasts that see Bitcoin continuing to climb. A move back above $108,900 could catalyze momentum toward $112,000 and beyond, echoing prior July rallies.
Yet the spinning top candle and resistance test demand prudence. The pattern alone doesn’t guarantee reversal—but it does justify slowing the pace on new long positions. Many traders prefer to wait for confirmation—a decisive close above resistance or a rejection followed by a textbook pullback.
On-chain signals provide additional context: long-term holder activity remains balanced, with no extreme accumulation or outflows. Volume remains stable, but there’s no volume push typical of a breakout. Such conditions reinforce the idea of a pause—not a panic .
July’s outlook hinges on two potential scenarios:
- Bullish continuation: A clean break above resistance, supported by ETF inflows and equity-driven sentiment, could trigger a typical July rally of around 9%, lifting BTC toward $116,000 – $120,000.
- Range-bound play: If resistance holds and spinning top indecision persists, Bitcoin may drift between $102K and $108K, offering traded opportunities within defined ranges.
Factors to monitor include equity market movement, ETF flow metrics, global macro developments such as interest-rate signals, and any fresh crypto-specific trends such as ETF approvals or major corporate purchases.
Bitcoin’s historic June close at $107,100 underscores the asset’s renewed institutional appeal and seasonal strength. Yet the spinning top candle warns of caution—echoing a past signal from mid-2024 that preceded a swift reversal.
The market now faces a decision point. Breaking above $108,900 could unleash the July rally that analysts expect. Failing to do so may bring a cooling-off period—and a test of whether the recent upswing is structurally sustainable or merely reflection of short-term flows.
For investors and traders alike, the month ahead offers both opportunity and risk. Sharp positioning toward midsummer equity and crypto seasonality could pay off—if matched with disciplined confirmation and risk awareness.